Interdependence Really is Complex∗

Researchers, pundits, and policy makers have long debated whether economic interdependence pacifies or provokes conflict among states. Here, I suggest how interdependence can do both. Valuable linkages offer a mechanism for signaling and coercion short of military violence that stands to increase moderate (non-militarized) conflict behavior while reducing more intense conflict or uses of force. I offer a formal model of interdependence and conflict, testing hypotheses derived from the model against COPDAB and WEIS events datasets. Interdependence reduces militarized violence, but increases non-violent conflict. The argument also helps to account for differences between symmetry and asymmetry (i.e., interdependence as opposed to dependence). ∗I thank David Bearce, Kristian S. Gleditsch, Robert Keohane, Eric Reinhardt and Dan Reiter for their comments and suggestions. Stata “do” files that replicate all aspects of the empirical analysis are available from the author. †University of California, San Diego, Department of Political Science, 9500 Gilman Ave., Room 327 Social Sciences Bldg., La Jolla, CA 92037, USA. E-mail: [email protected].